{"id":1942,"date":"2012-10-18T08:30:29","date_gmt":"2012-10-18T15:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/?p=353&#038;lang=en"},"modified":"2019-09-14T16:47:47","modified_gmt":"2019-09-14T23:47:47","slug":"odds-to-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/andreiromanenko.com\/es\/odds-to-win\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las probabilidades?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-bottom: 1em;\"><span style=\"display: none; font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">.<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las probabilidades de ganar una tarjeta verde? Para responder a esta pregunta con precisi\u00f3n matem\u00e1tica tenemos que dividir el n\u00famero de miembros de su continente (grupo de pa\u00edses) en el a\u00f1o del sorteo por el n\u00famero de visas de inmigrante asignados a su continente (grupo de pa\u00edses). En el momento del sorteo, es imposible adivinar cu\u00e1ntas personas participar\u00e1n en el a\u00f1o en curso. En consecuencia, es imposible calcular la probabilidad exacta de ganar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Para visualizar las posibilidades de ganar esta loter\u00eda gratis, vamos a comparar las probabilidades con otras loter\u00edas donde la gente paga dinero para jugar. Imaginemos que cada persona en el planeta participa en la loter\u00eda de tarjetas verdes. En este ejemplo, las probabilidades de que un participante individual gane una tarjeta verde ser\u00eda 28 veces mayor que las probabilidades de ganar la loter\u00eda \u00ab6 de cada 36\u00bb, o 2510 veces mejor que la de ganar el premio mayor de la loter\u00eda estadounidense m\u00e1s popular \u00abMega Millones\u00bb. Wikipedia, sin citar fuentes, declara que de 2007 a 2012, la oportunidad de ganar una tarjeta verde para un participante de Europa en promedio fue de 1,75%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Uno debe entender que incluso si uno participa en la loter\u00eda cada a\u00f1o, las probabilidades de ganar no aumentan. En cada caso, cada a\u00f1o, la probabilidad de ganar es de 50 por ciento, es decir, usted gana o no. Algunas personas pueden duplicar o incluso triplicar sus posibilidades de ganar. Si un participante est\u00e1 casado y juega a la loter\u00eda con el c\u00f3nyuge, las posibilidades de ganar en un a\u00f1o se doblen. En una familia con ni\u00f1os menores de 17 a\u00f1os (suponiendo que a la edad de 17, el ni\u00f1o todav\u00eda no ha terminado la escuela secundaria), las probabilidades de ganar de cada ni\u00f1o se doblen si los dos padres del ni\u00f1o participen en la loter\u00eda. Las posibilidades de que un ni\u00f1o de 17 a 21 a\u00f1os (si el ni\u00f1o no est\u00e1 casado) son triples &#8211; ya que en el momento del sorteo el ni\u00f1o ya ha graduado de la escuela secundaria, \u00e9l o ella mismo puede participar en la loter\u00eda, y puesto que el ni\u00f1o es menor de 21 &#8211; \u00e9l \/ ella gane con los padres.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">El autor de este art\u00edculo ha llenado solicitudes de loter\u00eda\u00a0de tarjeta verde cada a\u00f1o por un n\u00famero diferente de personas y el resultado ha sido impredecible: un a\u00f1o unas personas de un cien participantes ganaron, un a\u00f1o m\u00e1s &#8211; unas de diez participantes ganaron, y un a\u00f1o m\u00e1s &#8211; ning\u00fan de varios cientos de participantes gan\u00f3. El autor a menudo escuch\u00f3 historias de personas que vinieron a los Estados como ganadores de la loter\u00eda de tarjetas verdes. Muchos han dicho que llenaron las propias solicitudes o lo hicieron con la ayuda de alguien, que jugaron por primera vez y no esperaban ganar. As\u00ed que, para llegar a una conclusi\u00f3n, no hay ning\u00fan punto en el c\u00e1lculo de la probabilidad exacta de ganar &#8211; uno debe participar en la loter\u00eda todos los a\u00f1os junto con sus familiares.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana, geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><!--more--><\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>. \u00bfCu\u00e1les son las probabilidades de ganar una tarjeta verde? Para responder a esta pregunta con precisi\u00f3n matem\u00e1tica tenemos que dividir el n\u00famero de miembros de su continente (grupo de pa\u00edses) en el a\u00f1o del sorteo por el n\u00famero de visas de inmigrante asignados a su continente (grupo de pa\u00edses). En el momento del sorteo,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[83,85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greencard-lottery","category-permanent-residency"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What are the odds? \u041a\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b \u0448\u0430\u043d\u0441\u044b \u0432\u044b\u0438\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044c?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What are the odds of winning a green card?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/andreiromanenko.com\/es\/odds-to-win\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What are the odds? 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